MeritValue

WILLIAMS SONOMA INC

WSMdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

WILLIAMS SONOMA INC earns about 111% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 61% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $94.68 and $146.29 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$8.25B1$8.67B2$7.75B3$7.71B3$7.81B3
Net income$1.13B4$1.13B5$949.8M6$1.13B6$1.09B6
Operating cash flow$1.37B7$1.05B8$1.68B9$1.36B9$1.31B9
Capital expenditure$226.5M10$354.1M11$188.5M12$221.6M12$259.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.14B7$698.7M8$1.49B9$1.14B9$1.06B9
Total debt$013————
Cash & equivalents$850.3M14$367.3M15$1.26B16$1.21B17$1.02B17
Diluted shares76.4M138.2M130.5M128.0M123.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$169.1
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$88.38
Free cash flow it threw off
$85.7
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $169.1 of net worth that earned you $88.38 and generated $85.7 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
111% avg · 5y
FY22 138%FY23 85%FY24 110%FY25 121%FY26 102%

It earned about 111% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+61% shares · 5y

Share count is up 61% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $94.68 and $146.29 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$139.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth1.0%
  • fcfBase$1.14B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$146.29
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth1.0%
  • fcfBase$1.14B
Earnings Power Value
$94.68
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.13B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$58
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years1.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $146.29
The three cases
Bear0.0%$140.38
Base1.0%$146.29
Bull6.0%$179.44

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 1.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0001628280-24-012221 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0001628280-25-015037 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0000719955-26-000059 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0001628280-24-012221 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0001628280-25-015037 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0000719955-26-000059 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0001628280-24-012221 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0001628280-25-015037 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0000719955-26-000059 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0001628280-24-012221 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0001628280-25-015037 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0000719955-26-000059 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0001628280-22-007494 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0001628280-23-009175 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0001628280-24-012221 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0001628280-25-015037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-02 · accession 0000719955-26-000059 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)