MeritValue

WillScot Holdings Corp

WSCdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

WillScot Holdings Corp earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 22% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.1 and $144.31 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.67B1$2.14B2$2.36B3$2.4B3$2.28B3
Net income$160.1M4$339.5M5$476.5M6$28.1M6−$53M6
Operating cash flow$539.9M7$744.7M8$761.2M9$561.6M9$762M9
Capital expenditure$30.5M10$43.7M11$22.2M12$18.4M12$24.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$509.4M7$701M8$739M9$543.2M9$737.7M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$6.39M13$7.39M14$11M15$9M16$14.6M16
Diluted shares232.8M221.4M201.8M190.3M182.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$46.95
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.91
Free cash flow it threw off
$40.44
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $46.95 of net worth that earned you −$2.91 and generated $40.44 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 25%FY23 39%FY24 3%FY25 -5%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−22% shares · 5y

Share count is down 22% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.1 and $144.31 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$144.31
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth13.1%
  • fcfBase$737.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$100.66
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth13.1%
  • fcfBase$737.7M
Earnings Power Value
$9.1
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$160.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years13.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $100.66
The three cases
Bear0.0%$57.86
Base13.1%$100.66
Bull18.1%$122.74

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 13.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001647088-24-000030 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001647088-25-000009 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001647088-26-000011 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001647088-24-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001647088-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001647088-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001647088-24-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001647088-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001647088-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001647088-24-000030 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001647088-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001647088-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001647088-23-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001647088-24-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001647088-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001647088-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)