MeritValue

Waterstone Financial, Inc.

WSBFdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Waterstone Financial, Inc. earns about 8% on invested capital, and has bought back 25% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $11.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$69.9M1$70.2M2$99.2M3$113.2M3$116.1M3
Net income$70.8M4$19.5M5$9.38M6$18.7M6$26.4M6
Operating cash flow$142M7$206.7M8−$27.6M9$48.1M9$24.2M9
Capital expenditure$778,00010$701,00011$700,00012$1.1M12$1.17M12
Free cash flow (derived)$141.2M7$206M8−$28.3M9$47M9$23M9
Total debt$477.1M13$387.9M14$758.1M15$446.5M16$412.3M16
Cash & equivalents$376.7M17————
Diluted shares23.9M22.0M20.2M18.6M17.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$195.55
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$14.78
Free cash flow it threw off
$12.88
Debt you’d be carrying
$230.74

10 shares is a claim on $195.55 of net worth that earned you $14.78 and generated $12.88 of cash last year, against $230.74 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 15%FY22 4%FY23 5%FY24 7%FY25 9%

It earned an average 8% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−25% shares · 5y

Share count is down 25% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 14% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$23M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$23M
Earnings Power Value
$11.3
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$19.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$25.52
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006779 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005687 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005853 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006779 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005687 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005853 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006779 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005687 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005853 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006779 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005687 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005853 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-004917 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006779 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005687 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005853 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001569994-22-000010 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)