Warby Parker Inc.
WRBYdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Warby Parker Inc. earns about -114% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 76% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $7.21 and $7.63 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $540.8M1 | $598.1M2 | $669.8M3 | $771.3M3 | $871.9M3 |
| Net income | −$144.3M4 | −$110.4M5 | −$63.2M6 | −$20.4M6 | $1.64M6 |
| Operating cash flow | −$32M7 | $10.4M8 | $61M9 | $98.7M9 | $110.8M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $48.5M10 | $60.2M11 | $53.7M12 | $64M12 | $67M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$80.5M7 | −$49.8M8 | $7.32M9 | $34.7M9 | $43.7M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $256.4M13 | $208.6M14 | $216.9M15 | $254.2M16 | $286.4M16 |
| Diluted shares | 71.2M | 114.9M | 117.4M | 120.4M | 125.1M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $29.39 of net worth that earned you $0.13 and generated $3.5 of cash last year.
It earned about -114% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 76% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7.21 and $7.63 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$34.7M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$34.7M
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $6.25 |
| Base | 5.0% | $7.21 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $8.36 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001504776-24-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001504776-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001504776-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001504776-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001504776-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001504776-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001504776-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001504776-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001504776-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001504776-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001504776-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001504776-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001504776-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001504776-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001504776-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001504776-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)