MeritValue

W. P. Carey Inc.

WPCdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

W. P. Carey Inc. earns about 5% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 21% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $21.86 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.33B1$1.48B2$1.74B3$1.58B3$1.72B3
Net income$410M4$599.1M5$708.3M6$460.8M6$466.4M6
Operating cash flow$926.5M7$1B8$1.07B9$1.83B9$1.28B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$6.79B10$7.88B11$8.14B12$8.04B13$8.72B13
Cash & equivalents$165.4M14$168M15$633.9M16$640.4M16$155.3M16
Diluted shares183.1M200.4M215.8M220.5M221.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$367.16
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$21.09
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$394.49

10 shares is a claim on $367.16 of net worth that earned you $21.09 last year, against $394.49 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 5%FY23 6%FY24 4%FY25 4%

It earned an average 5% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+21% shares · 5y

Share count is up 21% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 28% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$21.86
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$466.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001025378-24-000037 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001025378-25-000031 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001025378-26-000036 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001025378-24-000037 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001025378-25-000031 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001025378-26-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001025378-24-000037 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001025378-25-000031 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001025378-26-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001025378-23-000035 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001025378-24-000037 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001025378-25-000031 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001025378-26-000036 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001025378-24-000037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001025378-25-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001025378-26-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)