MeritValue

WOLFSPEED, INC.

WOLFdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

WOLFSPEED, INC. earns about -10% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 26% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$525.6M1$572.1M2$758.5M3$807.2M3$757.6M3
Net income−$523.9M4−$200.9M4−$329.9M5−$864.2M5−$1.61B5
Operating cash flow−$125.5M6−$154.2M7−$142.6M8−$725.6M8−$711.7M8
Capital expenditure$570.5M9$636.8M10$949.6M11$2.27B11$1.27B11
Free cash flow (derived)−$696M6−$791M7−$1.09B8−$3B8−$1.98B8
Total debt———$6.16B12$13.1B12
Cash & equivalents$379M13$449.5M14$1.76B15$1.05B16$467.2M16
Diluted shares112.3M120.1M124.4M125.7M141.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$31.64
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$113.87
Free cash flow it threw off
−$140.33
Debt you’d be carrying
$925.28

10 shares is a claim on −$31.64 of net worth that earned you −$113.87 and generated −$140.33 of cash last year, against $925.28 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-10% avg · 5y
FY21 -13%FY22 -9%FY23 —FY24 -8%FY25 -11%

It earned an average -10% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+26% shares · 5y

Share count is up 26% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 112% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-27 · accession 0000895419-23-000061 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-26 · accession 0000895419-24-000062 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-25 · accession 0000895419-25-000110 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-27 · accession 0000895419-23-000061 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-25 · accession 0000895419-25-000110 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-27 · accession 0000895419-23-000061 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-26 · accession 0000895419-24-000062 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-25 · accession 0000895419-25-000110 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-27 · accession 0000895419-23-000061 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-26 · accession 0000895419-24-000062 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-25 · accession 0000895419-25-000110 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000895419-25-000110 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-27 · accession 0000895419-22-000055 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-26 · accession 0000895419-23-000061 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-25 · accession 0000895419-24-000062 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000895419-25-000110 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)