MeritValue

WABASH NATIONAL Corp

WNCdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

WABASH NATIONAL Corp earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 19% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $4.42 and $27.87 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.8B1$2.5B2$2.54B3$1.95B3$1.54B3
Net income$1.16M4$112.3M5$231.3M6−$284.1M6$211.5M6
Operating cash flow−$7.47M7$124.1M8$319.6M9$117.3M9$11.7M9
Capital expenditure$49.1M10$57.1M11$98.1M12$72.2M12$24.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$56.6M7$67M8$221.5M9$45.1M9−$13M9
Total debt$428.3M13$395.8M14$396.5M15$397.1M16$442.9M16
Cash & equivalents$71.8M17$58.2M18$179.3M19$115.5M20$31.9M20
Diluted shares51.6M49.9M48.0M44.4M41.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$88
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$50.65
Free cash flow it threw off
−$3.12
Debt you’d be carrying
$106.08

10 shares is a claim on $88 of net worth that earned you $50.65 and generated −$3.12 of cash last year, against $106.08 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 17%FY23 32%FY24 -63%FY25 27%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−19% shares · 5y

Share count is down 19% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $4.42 and $27.87 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$4.42
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$45.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$5.59
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$45.1M
Earnings Power Value
$27.87
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$112.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$31.68
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $5.59
The three cases
Bear0.0%$5.59
Base0.0%$5.59
Bull5.0%$9.32

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000879526-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000879526-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000879526-26-000036 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000879526-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000879526-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000879526-26-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000879526-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000879526-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000879526-26-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000879526-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000879526-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000879526-26-000036 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000879526-23-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000879526-24-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000879526-25-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000879526-26-000036 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000879526-23-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000879526-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000879526-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000879526-26-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)