MeritValue

Walmart Inc.

WMTdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Walmart Inc. earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $20.04 and $34.56 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$567.8B1$605.9B2$642.6B3$674.5B3$706.4B3
Net income$13.7B4$11.7B5$15.5B6$19.4B6$21.9B6
Operating cash flow$24.2B7$28.8B8$35.7B9$36.4B9$41.6B9
Capital expenditure$13.1B10$16.9B11$20.6B12$23.8B12$26.6B12
Free cash flow (derived)$11.1B7$12B8$15.1B9$12.7B9$14.9B9
Total debt$75.7B13$78.1B14$80B15$75.1B16$82.9B16
Cash & equivalents$14.8B17$8.63B18$9.87B19$9.04B20$10.7B20
Diluted shares8.41B8.20B8.11B8.08B8.02B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$124.18
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$27.29
Free cash flow it threw off
$18.6
Debt you’d be carrying
$103.38

10 shares is a claim on $124.18 of net worth that earned you $27.29 and generated $18.6 of cash last year, against $103.38 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY22 11%FY23 9%FY24 12%FY25 14%FY26 14%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $20.04 and $34.56 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$34.56
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth7.6%
  • fcfBase$14.9B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$27.82
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth7.6%
  • fcfBase$14.9B
Earnings Power Value
$20.04
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$15.5B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$27.62
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years7.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $27.82
The three cases
Bear0.0%$17.58
Base7.6%$27.82
Bull12.6%$36.25

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 7.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000104169-24-000056 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000104169-25-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0000104169-26-000055 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000104169-24-000056 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000104169-25-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0000104169-26-000055 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000104169-24-000056 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000104169-25-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0000104169-26-000055 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000104169-24-000056 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000104169-25-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0000104169-26-000055 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000104169-23-000020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000104169-24-000056 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0000104169-25-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0000104169-26-000055 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0000104169-23-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0000104169-24-000056 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0000104169-25-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0000104169-26-000055 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)