ADVANCED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS, INC.
WMSdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'
ADVANCED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS, INC. earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 8% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $59.52 and $196.05 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.77B1 | $3.07B2 | $2.87B3 | $2.9B3 | $3.05B3 |
| Net income | $271.3M4 | $507.1M5 | $509.9M6 | $450.2M6 | $426.5M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $274.9M7 | $707.8M8 | $717.9M9 | $581.5M9 | $819.1M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $149.1M10 | $166.9M11 | $183.8M12 | $212.9M12 | $249.8M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $125.8M7 | $540.9M8 | $534.1M9 | $368.5M9 | $569.3M9 |
| Total debt | $1.86B13 | $2.58B14 | $2.55B15 | $2.53B16 | $3.24B16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $20.1M17 | $217.1M18 | $490.2M19 | $463.3M19 | $223M19 |
| Diluted shares | 72.9M | 83.3M | 79.0M | 78.2M | 78.4M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $237.13 of net worth that earned you $54.41 and generated $72.63 of cash last year, against $413.62 of debt.
It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 8% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 74% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $59.52 and $196.05 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth12.7%
- fcfBase$534.1M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth12.7%
- fcfBase$534.1M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$450.2M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $58.84 |
| Base | 12.7% | $127.77 |
| Bull | 17.7% | $164.4 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 12.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001604028-24-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001604028-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001604028-26-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001604028-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001604028-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001604028-26-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001604028-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001604028-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001604028-26-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001604028-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001604028-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001604028-26-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001604028-23-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001604028-24-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001604028-25-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001604028-26-000019 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001604028-23-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001604028-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001604028-26-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)