MeritValue

WEIS MARKETS INC

WMKdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

WEIS MARKETS INC earns about 9% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $17.99 and $42.78 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.22B1$4.71B2$4.71B3$4.79B3$4.96B3
Net income$108.8M4$125.2M5$100.9M6$106M6$93.7M6
Operating cash flow$227.7M7$218M8$201.6M8$187.5M8$207.2M8
Capital expenditure$151.8M9$122.2M10$104M11$161.3M11$202.4M11
Free cash flow (derived)$75.9M7$95.9M8$97.6M8$26.1M8$4.83M8
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$86M12$158M13$184.2M14$190.3M15$117.1M15
Diluted shares26.9M26.9M26.9M26.9M25.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$526.33
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$36.48
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.88
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $526.33 of net worth that earned you $36.48 and generated $1.88 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 11%FY23 9%FY24 9%FY25 8%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $17.99 and $42.78 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$17.99
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$26.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$19.09
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$26.1M
Earnings Power Value
$42.78
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$106M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$65.75
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $19.09
The three cases
Bear0.0%$19.09
Base0.0%$19.09
Bull5.0%$22.6

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000105418-24-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000105418-25-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000105418-26-000024 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000105418-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000105418-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000105418-26-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000105418-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000105418-26-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000105418-24-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000105418-25-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000105418-26-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000105418-23-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000105418-24-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000105418-25-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0000105418-26-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)