WILLIAMS COMPANIES, INC.
WMBdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on fileWILLIAMS COMPANIES, INC. earns about 26% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $18.82 and $27.48 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.8B1 | $17.8B2 | $12B3 | $12.6B3 | $14.9B3 |
| Net income | $1.52B4 | $2.05B5 | $3.18B6 | $2.23B6 | $2.62B6 |
| Operating cash flow | $3.95B7 | $4.89B8 | $5.94B9 | $4.97B9 | $5.9B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $1.24B10 | $2.25B11 | $2.52B12 | $2.57B12 | $4.89B12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $2.71B7 | $2.64B8 | $3.42B9 | $2.4B9 | $1.01B9 |
| Total debt | $013 | $350M14 | $725M15 | $455M16 | $700M16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $1.68B17 | $152M17 | $2.15B18 | $60M18 | $63M18 |
| Diluted shares | 1.22B | 1.22B | 1.22B | 1.22B | 1.23B |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $104.55 of net worth that earned you $21.37 and generated $8.2 of cash last year, against $5.71 of debt.
It earned about 26% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $18.82 and $27.48 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$2.4B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$2.4B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$2.23B
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $27.48 |
| Base | 0.0% | $27.48 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $34.26 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000107263-24-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000107263-25-000031 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000107263-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000107263-24-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000107263-25-000031 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000107263-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000107263-24-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000107263-25-000031 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000107263-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000107263-24-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000107263-25-000031 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000107263-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000107263-23-000007 (CommercialPaper)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000107263-24-000019 (CommercialPaper)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000107263-25-000031 (CommercialPaper)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000107263-26-000006 (CommercialPaper)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000107263-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000107263-26-000006 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)