MeritValue

WASTE MANAGEMENT INC

WMdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

WASTE MANAGEMENT INC earns about 29% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $59.07 and $108.8 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$17.9B1$19.7B2$20.4B3$22.1B3$25.2B3
Net income$1.82B4$2.24B5$2.3B6$2.75B6$2.71B6
Operating cash flow$4.34B7$4.54B8$4.72B9$5.39B9$6.04B9
Capital expenditure$2.04B10$2.81B10$2.9B11$3.23B11$3.23B11
Free cash flow (derived)$2.3B7$1.73B8$1.82B9$2.16B9$2.82B9
Total debt$708M12$414M13$334M14$1.36B15$711M15
Cash & equivalents$118M16$351M17$458M18$414M18$201M18
Diluted shares422.9M415.0M406.9M403.4M404.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$247.15
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$67
Free cash flow it threw off
$69.67
Debt you’d be carrying
$17.59

10 shares is a claim on $247.15 of net worth that earned you $67 and generated $69.67 of cash last year, against $17.59 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
29% avg · 5y
FY21 24%FY22 32%FY23 34%FY24 30%FY25 26%

It earned about 29% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $59.07 and $108.8 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$108.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.9%
  • fcfBase$2.16B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$97.21
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.9%
  • fcfBase$2.16B
Earnings Power Value
$59.07
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.3B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$61.04
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $97.21
The three cases
Bear0.0%$75.06
Base5.9%$97.21
Bull10.9%$120.02

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001049 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001132 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-012049 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001049 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001132 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-012049 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001049 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001132 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-012049 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-000964 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-012049 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-000964 (DebtCurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001049 (DebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001132 (DebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-012049 (DebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001049 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001132 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-012049 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)