MeritValue

JOHN WILEY & SONS, INC.

WLYdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

JOHN WILEY & SONS, INC. earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $10.77 and $16.38 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$2.08B1$2.02B2$1.87B3$1.68B3$1.68B3
Net income$148.3M4$17.2M5−$200.3M6$84.2M6$221.6M6
Operating cash flow$339.1M7$277.1M8$207.6M9$202.6M9$260.5M9
Capital expenditure$88.8M10$81.2M11$76.1M12$61.5M12$51.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$250.3M7$195.9M8$131.6M9$141.1M9$209.4M9
Total debt$1.57B13$1.5B14$1.55B15$1.6B16$1.37B16
Cash & equivalents$100.4M17$106.7M17$83.2M18$85.9M19$75.6M19
Diluted shares56.6M56.4M54.9M54.8M53.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$159.3
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$41.62
Free cash flow it threw off
$39.32
Debt you’d be carrying
$256.69

10 shares is a claim on $159.3 of net worth that earned you $41.62 and generated $39.32 of cash last year, against $256.69 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY22 6%FY23 2%FY24 -5%FY25 4%FY26 10%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 13% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.77 and $16.38 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$10.77
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$141.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$13.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$141.1M
Earnings Power Value
$16.38
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$84.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$38.61
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $13.62
The three cases
Bear0.0%$13.62
Base0.0%$13.62
Bull5.0%$22.78

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000107140-24-000114 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0000107140-25-000081 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001628280-26-045111 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000107140-24-000114 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0000107140-25-000081 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001628280-26-045111 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000107140-24-000114 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0000107140-25-000081 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001628280-26-045111 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000107140-24-000114 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0000107140-25-000081 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001628280-26-045111 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000107140-23-000092 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0000107140-24-000114 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0000107140-25-000081 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-04-30 · accession 0001628280-26-045111 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000107140-24-000114 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0000107140-25-000081 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2025-04-30 · accession 0001628280-26-045111 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)