MeritValue

WESTLAKE CORP

WLKdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

WESTLAKE CORP earns about 6% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $48.64 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$11.8B1$15.8B2$12.5B3$12.1B3$11.2B3
Net income$2.02B4$2.25B5$479M6$602M6−$1.51B6
Operating cash flow$2.39B7$3.4B8$2.34B9$1.31B9$465M9
Capital expenditure$658M10$1.11B11$1.03B12$1.01B12$995M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.74B7$2.29B8$1.3B9$306M9−$530M9
Total debt$10.4B13$9.76B14$9.81B15$9.12B16$11.2B16
Cash & equivalents$1.91B17$2.23B18$3.3B19$2.92B20$2.72B20
Diluted shares128.7M128.8M128.6M129.2M128.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$685.48
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$117.57
Free cash flow it threw off
−$41.32
Debt you’d be carrying
$870.73

10 shares is a claim on $685.48 of net worth that earned you −$117.57 and generated −$41.32 of cash last year, against $870.73 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 14%FY23 4%FY24 4%FY25 -7%

It earned an average 6% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$306M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$306M
Earnings Power Value
$48.64
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$602M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001262823-24-000014 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001262823-25-000011 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001262823-26-000016 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001262823-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001262823-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001262823-26-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001262823-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001262823-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001262823-26-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001262823-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001262823-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001262823-26-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001262823-23-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001262823-24-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001262823-25-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001262823-26-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001262823-23-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001262823-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001262823-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001262823-26-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)