WILLIS LEASE FINANCE CORP
WLFCdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on fileWILLIS LEASE FINANCE CORP earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 11% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $64.63 and $1,759.95 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $274.2M1 | $311.9M2 | $418.6M3 | $569.2M4 | $730.2M4 |
| Net income | $3.35M5 | $5.44M6 | $43.8M7 | $108.6M8 | $113.8M8 |
| Operating cash flow | $90.7M9 | $144.4M10 | $229.7M11 | $284.4M12 | $283.2M12 |
| Capital expenditure | $2.17M13 | $6.63M14 | $5.14M15 | $15.6M16 | $31.1M16 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $88.5M9 | $137.8M10 | $224.6M11 | $268.8M12 | $252.2M12 |
| Total debt | $1.79B17 | $1.85B18 | $1.8B19 | $2.26B20 | $2.7B20 |
| Cash & equivalents | $14.3M21 | $12.1M22 | $7.07M23 | $9.11M24 | $16.4M24 |
| Diluted shares | 6.3M | 6.3M | 6.5M | 6.8M | 7.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $943.22 of net worth that earned you $162.05 and generated $359.19 of cash last year, against $3,846.64 of debt.
It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 11% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 51% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $64.63 and $1,759.95 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$252.2M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$252.2M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$43.8M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $130.88 |
| Base | 20.0% | $788.77 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $788.77 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001018164-23-000006 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001018164-24-000013 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001018164-25-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001018164-26-000041 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001018164-23-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001018164-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001018164-25-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001018164-26-000041 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001018164-23-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001018164-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001018164-25-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001018164-26-000041 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001018164-23-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001018164-24-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001018164-25-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001018164-26-000041 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001018164-23-000006 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001018164-24-000013 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001018164-25-000027 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001018164-26-000041 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001018164-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001018164-24-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001018164-25-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001018164-26-000041 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)