MeritValue

Willdan Group, Inc.

WLDNdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Willdan Group, Inc. earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 21% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $7.51 and $249.87 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2026
Revenue$353.8M1$429.1M2$510.1M3$565.8M3$681.6M3
Net income−$8.42M4−$8.45M5$10.9M6$22.6M6$52.6M6
Operating cash flow$9.8M7$9.43M8$39.2M9$72.1M9$80.1M9
Capital expenditure$8.5M10$9.6M11$9.93M12$8.41M12$9.39M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.3M7−$169,0008$29.3M9$63.7M9$70.7M9
Total debt$201.1M13$214.9M14$194.9M15$179M16$96.9M16
Cash & equivalents$11.2M17$8.81M18$23.4M19$74.2M19$65.9M19
Diluted shares12.5M13.0M13.6M14.2M15.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$202.28
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$34.87
Free cash flow it threw off
$46.91
Debt you’d be carrying
$64.31

10 shares is a claim on $202.28 of net worth that earned you $34.87 and generated $46.91 of cash last year, against $64.31 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 -2%FY22 -2%FY23 3%FY24 7%FY26 12%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+21% shares · 5y

Share count is up 21% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 52% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7.51 and $249.87 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$249.87
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$63.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$135.66
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$63.7M
Earnings Power Value
$7.51
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$10.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$39.85
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $135.66
The three cases
Bear0.0%$58.29
Base20.0%$135.66
Bull20.0%$135.66

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002758 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001558370-25-002429 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001104659-26-020767 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002758 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001558370-25-002429 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001104659-26-020767 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002758 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001558370-25-002429 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001104659-26-020767 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002758 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001558370-25-002429 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001104659-26-020767 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003367 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001558370-24-002758 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001558370-25-002429 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-27 · accession 0001104659-26-020767 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002758 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001558370-25-002429 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001104659-26-020767 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)