MeritValue

WORLD KINECT CORP

WKCdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

WORLD KINECT CORP earns about -1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 12% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.49 and $121.61 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$31.3B1$59B2$47.7B3$42.2B3$36.9B3
Net income$73.7M4$114.1M5$52.9M6$67.4M6−$614.4M6
Operating cash flow$173.2M7$138.5M8$271.3M9$259.9M9$292.9M9
Capital expenditure$39.2M10$78.6M11$87.6M12$68.2M12$65.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$134M7$59.9M8$183.7M9$191.7M9$227.3M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$652.2M13$298.4M14$304.3M15$382.9M16$193.5M16
Diluted shares63.3M62.7M61.7M59.5M55.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$232.4
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$109.91
Free cash flow it threw off
$40.66
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $232.4 of net worth that earned you −$109.91 and generated $40.66 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-1% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 12%FY23 10%FY24 10%FY25 -45%

It earned about -1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−12% shares · 5y

Share count is down 12% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.49 and $121.61 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$121.61
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth12.7%
  • fcfBase$191.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$87.19
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth12.7%
  • fcfBase$191.7M
Earnings Power Value
$12.49
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$67.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years12.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $87.19
The three cases
Bear0.0%$52.46
Base12.7%$87.19
Bull17.7%$105.63

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 12.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006634 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007620 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000789460-26-000015 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006634 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007620 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000789460-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006634 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007620 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000789460-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006634 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007620 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000789460-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007620 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000789460-26-000015 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007620 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000789460-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)