MeritValue

WORKIVA INC

WKdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

WORKIVA INC earns about -786% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 10% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $56.05 and $97.53 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$443.3M1$537.9M2$630M3$738.7M3$884.6M3
Net income−$37.7M4−$90.9M5−$127.5M6−$55M6−$26.2M6
Operating cash flow$49.8M7$11.3M8$70.9M9$87.7M9$140.1M9
Capital expenditure$3.53M10$3.46M11$2.12M12$1.36M12$2.08M12
Free cash flow (derived)$46.3M7$7.88M8$68.8M9$86.3M9$138M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$300.4M13$240.2M14$256.1M15$301.8M15$338.8M15
Diluted shares51.1M53.0M54.1M55.4M56.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$0.97
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$4.65
Free cash flow it threw off
$24.52
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$0.97 of net worth that earned you −$4.65 and generated $24.52 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-786% avg · 5y
FY21 -52%FY22 -1520%FY23 —FY24 —FY25 —

It earned about -786% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+10% shares · 5y

Share count is up 10% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $56.05 and $97.53 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$97.53
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$86.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$56.05
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$86.3M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $56.05
The three cases
Bear0.0%$27.94
Base20.0%$56.05
Bull20.0%$56.05

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001445305-24-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001445305-25-000034 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001445305-26-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001445305-24-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001445305-25-000034 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001445305-26-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001445305-24-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001445305-25-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001445305-26-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001445305-24-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001445305-25-000034 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001445305-26-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001445305-24-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001445305-25-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001445305-26-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)