MeritValue

WINDTREE THERAPEUTICS INC /DE/

WINTdata completeness 75%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

WINDTREE THERAPEUTICS INC /DE/ earns about -303% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 211% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue—————
Net income−$32.6M1−$67.6M2−$39.2M3−$20.3M4−$1.79M4
Operating cash flow−$25.3M5−$23.7M6−$19.5M7−$13.4M8−$15.4M8
Capital expenditure$291,0009$279,00010$13,00011$15,00012$12,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$25.6M5−$23.9M6−$19.5M7−$13.5M8−$15.4M8
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$16.9M13$22.3M14$6.17M15$4.32M16$1.78M16
Diluted shares16.9M495,000630,0004.3M52.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1.9
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.34
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.93
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $1.9 of net worth that earned you −$0.34 and generated −$2.93 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-303% avg · 5y
FY20 -49%FY21 -313%FY22 -834%FY23 —FY24 -17%

It earned an average -303% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+211% shares · 5y

Share count is up 211% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001437749-22-007757 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008864 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-012210 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-012093 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001437749-22-007757 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008864 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-012210 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-012093 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001437749-22-007757 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008864 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-012210 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-012093 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001437749-22-007757 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-008864 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-012210 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-012093 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)