MeritValue

Wingstop Inc.

WINGdata completeness 100%13 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Wingstop Inc. earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $25.9 and $144.84 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$282.5M1$357.5M2$460.1M3$625.8M3$696.9M3
Net income$42.7M4$52.9M5$70.2M6$108.7M6$174.3M6
Operating cash flow$48.9M7$76.2M8$121.6M9$157.6M9$153.1M9
Capital expenditure$28M10$23.9M11$40.8M12$51.9M12$47.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$20.9M7$52.3M8$80.8M9$105.7M9$105.6M9
Total debt$947M13$1.44B14$1.43B15$2.43B16$2.43B16
Cash & equivalents$48.6M17$184.5M18$90.2M19$315.9M20$196.6M20
Diluted shares29.9M30.0M29.9M29.4M28.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$262.44
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$62.07
Free cash flow it threw off
$37.62
Debt you’d be carrying
$865.58

10 shares is a claim on −$262.44 of net worth that earned you $62.07 and generated $37.62 of cash last year, against $865.58 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 6%FY23 8%FY24 8%FY25 12%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 157% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $25.9 and $144.84 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$144.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$105.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$43.11
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$105.6M
Earnings Power Value
$25.9
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$70.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $43.11
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$25.8
Base20.0%$43.11
Bull20.0%$43.11

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001636222-24-000011 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001636222-25-000008 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001636222-26-000008 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001636222-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001636222-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001636222-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001636222-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001636222-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001636222-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001636222-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001636222-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001636222-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001636222-23-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001636222-24-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001636222-25-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001636222-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001636222-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001636222-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001636222-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001636222-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)