MeritValue

WINMARK CORP

WINAdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

The estimate methods put fair value between $112.34 and $171.86 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.3M1$81.4M2$83.2M3$81.3M3$86.1M3
Net income$39.9M4$39.4M5$40.2M6$40M6$41.7M6
Operating cash flow$48.3M7$43.8M8$44M9$42.2M9$44.9M9
Capital expenditure$74,70010$139,10011$383,90012$194,90012$192,30012
Free cash flow (derived)$48.3M7$43.7M8$43.6M9$42M9$44.7M9
Total debt$47.7M13————
Cash & equivalents$11.4M14$13.6M15$13.4M16$12.2M16$10.3M16
Diluted shares3.8M3.6M3.6M3.7M3.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$145.66
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$113.02
Free cash flow it threw off
$121.3
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$145.66 of net worth that earned you $113.02 and generated $121.3 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 5y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $112.34 and $171.86 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$159.13
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$43.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$171.86
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$43.6M
Earnings Power Value
$112.34
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$40M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $171.86
The three cases
Bear0.0%$171.86
Base0.0%$171.86
Bull5.0%$212.78

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000908315-23-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000908315-25-000010 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000908315-26-000007 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000908315-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000908315-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000908315-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000908315-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000908315-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000908315-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000908315-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000908315-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000908315-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000908315-22-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000908315-24-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000908315-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000908315-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)