MeritValue

Wheeler Real Estate Investment Trust, Inc.

WHLRdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Wheeler Real Estate Investment Trust, Inc. earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 99% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $649.15 and $683.99 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$942,0001$1.45M2$1.99M3$2.17M4$1.75M4
Net income−$9.44M5−$12.5M6−$4.69M7−$9.63M8$8.77M8
Operating cash flow$17M9$30.8M10$20.9M11$26M12$21.1M12
Capital expenditure$6.41M13$8.51M13$20M14$22.5M15$17.1M15
Free cash flow (derived)$10.6M9$22.2M10$913,00011$3.46M12$4.03M12
Total debt$336.4M16$466M17$477.6M17——
Cash & equivalents$22.9M18$28.5M19$18.4M20$43M21$23.7M21
Diluted shares9.7M976,0702,22264106,902

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$21.89
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$820.38
Free cash flow it threw off
$376.61
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $21.89 of net worth that earned you $820.38 and generated $376.61 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 4%FY23 9%FY24 —FY25 —

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−99% shares · 5y

Share count is down 99% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 42% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $649.15 and $683.99 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$649.15
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$3.46M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$683.99
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$3.46M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $683.99
The three cases
Bear0.0%$683.99
Base0.0%$683.99
Bull5.0%$795.99

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001527541-23-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001527541-24-000026 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001527541-25-000038 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001527541-26-000050 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001527541-23-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001527541-24-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001527541-25-000038 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001527541-26-000050 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001527541-23-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001527541-24-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001527541-25-000038 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001527541-26-000050 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001527541-23-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001527541-25-000038 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001527541-26-000050 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001527541-23-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001527541-24-000026 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001527541-23-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001527541-24-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001527541-25-000038 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001527541-26-000050 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)