MeritValue

WINNEBAGO INDUSTRIES INC

WGOdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

WINNEBAGO INDUSTRIES INC earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 17% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.12 and $79.06 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.63B1$4.96B2$3.49B3$2.97B3$2.8B3
Net income$281.9M4$390.6M5$215.9M6$13M6$25.7M6
Operating cash flow$237.3M7$400.6M8$294.5M9$143.9M9$128.9M9
Capital expenditure$44.9M10$88M11$83.2M12$45M12$39.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$192.4M7$312.6M8$211.3M9$98.9M9$89.5M9
Total debt$1.06B13$1.09B14$1.18B15$1.33B16$1.08B16
Cash & equivalents$434.6M17$282.2M18$309.9M19$330.9M20$174M20
Diluted shares34.1M33.0M35.4M29.5M28.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$432.76
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.08
Free cash flow it threw off
$31.63
Debt you’d be carrying
$381.98

10 shares is a claim on $432.76 of net worth that earned you $9.08 and generated $31.63 of cash last year, against $381.98 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 19%FY22 20%FY23 10%FY24 1%FY25 1%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−17% shares · 5y

Share count is down 17% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.12 and $79.06 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$14.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$98.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$17.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$98.9M
Earnings Power Value
$79.06
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$215.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$29.77
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $17.88
The three cases
Bear0.0%$17.88
Base0.0%$17.88
Bull5.0%$29.97

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-28 · accession 0000107687-23-000028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-27 · accession 0000107687-24-000026 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-26 · accession 0000107687-25-000034 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-28 · accession 0000107687-23-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-27 · accession 0000107687-24-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-26 · accession 0000107687-25-000034 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-28 · accession 0000107687-23-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-27 · accession 0000107687-24-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-26 · accession 0000107687-25-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-28 · accession 0000107687-23-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-27 · accession 0000107687-24-000026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-26 · accession 0000107687-25-000034 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-28 · accession 0000107687-22-000024 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-27 · accession 0000107687-23-000028 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-26 · accession 0000107687-24-000026 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-08-31 · accession 0000107687-25-000034 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-28 · accession 0000107687-22-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-27 · accession 0000107687-23-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-26 · accession 0000107687-24-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-08-31 · accession 0000107687-25-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)