MeritValue

Weatherford International plc

WFRDdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Weatherford International plc earns about 15% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $59.52 and $399.11 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.65B1$4.33B2$5.14B3$5.51B3$4.92B3
Net income−$450M4$26M5$417M6$506M6$431M6
Operating cash flow$322M7$349M8$832M9$792M9$676M9
Capital expenditure$85M10$132M11$209M12$299M12$226M12
Free cash flow (derived)$237M7$217M8$623M9$493M9$450M9
Total debt$2.38B13$45M14$1.83B15$1.59B16$1.42B16
Cash & equivalents$951M17$910M18$958M19$916M20$987M20
Diluted shares70.0M71.6M73.6M74.9M72.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$234.02
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$59.37
Free cash flow it threw off
$61.98
Debt you’d be carrying
$194.9

10 shares is a claim on $234.02 of net worth that earned you $59.37 and generated $61.98 of cash last year, against $194.9 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 5y
FY21 -14%FY22 —FY23 25%FY24 28%FY25 21%

It earned about 15% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 41% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $59.52 and $399.11 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$399.11
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$493M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$215.5
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$493M
Earnings Power Value
$59.52
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$417M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$55.88
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $215.5
The three cases
Bear0.0%$91.13
Base20.0%$215.5
Bull20.0%$215.5

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001603923-24-000043 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001603923-25-000050 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001603923-26-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001603923-24-000043 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001603923-25-000050 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001603923-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001603923-24-000043 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001603923-25-000050 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001603923-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001603923-24-000043 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001603923-25-000050 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001603923-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001603923-22-000051 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001603923-23-000068 (DebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001603923-25-000050 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001603923-26-000014 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001603923-23-000068 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001603923-24-000043 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001603923-25-000050 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001603923-26-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)