MeritValue

WEST FRASER TIMBER CO., LTD

WFGdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

WEST FRASER TIMBER CO., LTD earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 28% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.89 and $6.54 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$10.5B1$9.7B2$6.45B3$6.17B4$5.46B4
Net income$2.95B5$1.98B6−$167M7−$5M8−$937M8
Operating cash flow$3.55B9$2.21B10$525M11$661M12$96M12
Capital expenditure$635M13$477M14$477M15$487M16$411M16
Free cash flow (derived)$2.92B9$1.73B10$48M11$174M12−$315M12
Total debt$595M17$598M18$582M19$265M20$371M20
Cash & equivalents$1.57B21$1.16B22$900M23$641M23$202M23
Diluted shares109.0M93.8M83.2M80.9M79.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$740.6
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$118.64
Free cash flow it threw off
−$39.89
Debt you’d be carrying
$46.98

10 shares is a claim on $740.6 of net worth that earned you −$118.64 and generated −$39.89 of cash last year, against $46.98 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 44%FY22 28%FY23 -3%FY24 0%FY25 -15%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−28% shares · 5y

Share count is down 28% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 38% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.89 and $6.54 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$5.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$48M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$6.54
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$48M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $6.54
The three cases
Bear0.0%$6.54
Base0.0%$6.54
Bull5.0%$8.65

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-003555 (Revenue)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004843 (Revenue)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005183 (Revenue)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001402388-26-000009 (Revenue)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-003555 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004843 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005183 (ProfitLoss)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001402388-26-000009 (ProfitLoss)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-003555 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004843 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005183 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001402388-26-000009 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-003555 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004843 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  15. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005183 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  16. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001402388-26-000009 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  17. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-003555 (Borrowings)
  18. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004843 (Borrowings)
  19. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005183 (Borrowings)
  20. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001402388-26-000009 (Borrowings)
  21. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004843 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  22. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005183 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  23. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001402388-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalents)