MeritValue

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN

WFCdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN earns about 23% on invested capital, and has bought back 21% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $63.03 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$39.7B1$54B2$85.1B3$90.8B3$87.3B3
Net income$22.1B4$13.7B5$19.1B6$19.7B6$21.3B6
Operating cash flow−$11.5B7$27B8$40.4B9$3.04B9−$19B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$195.1B10$226B11$297.1B12$175.8B13$193B13
Cash & equivalents$234.2B14$159.2B15$236.1B15$201.9B15$172.6B15
Diluted shares4.10B3.84B3.72B3.47B3.24B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$558.61
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$65.81
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$595.36

10 shares is a claim on $558.61 of net worth that earned you $65.81 last year, against $595.36 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
23% avg · 5y
FY21 18%FY22 9%FY23 19%FY24 40%FY25 31%

It earned an average 23% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−21% shares · 5y

Share count is down 21% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$63.03
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$19.7B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$88.7
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000072971-24-000064 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000072971-25-000066 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000072971-26-000133 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000072971-24-000064 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000072971-25-000066 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000072971-26-000133 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000072971-24-000064 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000072971-25-000066 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000072971-26-000133 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000072971-23-000071 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000072971-24-000064 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000072971-25-000066 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000072971-26-000133 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000072971-25-000066 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000072971-26-000133 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)