MeritValue

Wendy's Co

WENdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Wendy's Co earns about 5% on invested capital, and has bought back 14% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.11 and $10.38 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.9B1$2.1B2$2.18B3$2.25B3$2.18B3
Net income$200.4M4$177.4M5$204.4M6$194.4M6$165.1M6
Operating cash flow$345.8M7$259.9M8$345.4M9$355.3M9$344.5M9
Capital expenditure$78M10$85.5M11$85M12$94.4M12$101.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$267.8M7$174.4M8$260.4M9$260.9M9$242.6M9
Total debt$4.76B13$5.7B14$5.52B15$5.48B16$5.52B16
Cash & equivalents$249.4M17$745.9M18$516M19$450.5M19$300.8M19
Diluted shares224.4M215.8M211.5M205.6M194.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$6.05
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$8.51
Free cash flow it threw off
$12.5
Debt you’d be carrying
$284.52

10 shares is a claim on $6.05 of net worth that earned you $8.51 and generated $12.5 of cash last year, against $284.52 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY22 6%FY23 5%FY23 6%FY24 4%FY25 3%

It earned an average 5% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−14% shares · 5y

Share count is down 14% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 16% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.11 and $10.38 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$2.11
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth6.5%
  • fcfBase$260.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth6.5%
  • fcfBase$260.4M
Earnings Power Value
$10.38
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$194.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$3.4
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0000030697-24-000004 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0000030697-25-000003 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000030697-26-000009 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0000030697-24-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0000030697-25-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000030697-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0000030697-24-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0000030697-25-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000030697-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0000030697-24-000004 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0000030697-25-000003 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000030697-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0000030697-23-000002 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0000030697-24-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000030697-25-000003 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0000030697-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0000030697-24-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0000030697-25-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000030697-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)