MeritValue

WELLTOWER INC.

WELLdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

WELLTOWER INC. earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 59% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.71 and $47.1 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.2B1$4.17B2$4.75B3$6.03B3$8.45B3
Net income$374.5M4$160.6M5$358.1M6$972.9M6$961.8M6
Operating cash flow$1.28B7$1.33B8$1.6B9$2.26B9$2.88B9
Capital expenditure$282.6M10$476M11$517.7M12$857.5M12$1.05B12
Free cash flow (derived)$992.7M7$852.7M8$1.08B9$1.4B9$1.83B9
Total debt$13.9B13$14.7B14$15.7B15$15.5B16$19.2B17
Cash & equivalents$269.3M18$631.7M19$1.99B20$3.51B21$5.03B21
Diluted shares426.8M465.2M518.7M608.8M679.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$619.99
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$14.15
Free cash flow it threw off
$26.95
Debt you’d be carrying
$282.51

10 shares is a claim on $619.99 of net worth that earned you $14.15 and generated $26.95 of cash last year, against $282.51 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 2%FY23 2%FY24 1%FY25 —

It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+59% shares · 5y

Share count is up 59% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 38% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.71 and $47.1 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$47.1
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth12.1%
  • fcfBase$1.4B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$28.27
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth12.1%
  • fcfBase$1.4B
Earnings Power Value
$5.71
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$374.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$44.03
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years12.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $28.27
The three cases
Bear0.0%$8.57
Base12.1%$28.27
Bull17.1%$39.14

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 12.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000766704-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000766704-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000766704-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000766704-24-000008 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000766704-25-000009 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000766704-26-000010 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000766704-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000766704-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000766704-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000766704-24-000008 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000766704-25-000009 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000766704-26-000010 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000766704-22-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000766704-23-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000766704-24-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000766704-25-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000766704-26-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000766704-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000766704-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000766704-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000766704-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)