MeritValue

WEC ENERGY GROUP, INC.

WECdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

WEC ENERGY GROUP, INC. earns about 4% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $45.12 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$8.32B1$9.6B2$8.89B3$8.6B3$9.8B3
Net income$1.3B4$1.41B5$1.33B6$1.52B6$1.56B6
Operating cash flow$2.03B7$2.06B8$3.02B9$3.21B9$3.38B9
Capital expenditure$2.37B10$2.7B10———
Free cash flow (derived)−$340M7−$636.2M8———
Total debt$29B11$32.6B12$35.3B13$38.9B14$42B14
Cash & equivalents$16.3M15$28.9M16$42.9M17$9.8M17$27.6M17
Diluted shares316.3M316.1M315.9M316.5M323.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$434
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$48.04
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,295.85

10 shares is a claim on $434 of net worth that earned you $48.04 last year, against $1,295.85 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 4%FY23 4%FY24 3%FY25 3%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 45% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$45.12
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.41B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$68.53
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000107815-24-000095 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000107815-25-000103 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000783325-26-000018 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000107815-24-000095 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000107815-25-000103 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000783325-26-000018 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000107815-24-000095 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000107815-25-000103 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000783325-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000107815-23-000100 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000107815-23-000100 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000107815-24-000095 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000107815-25-000103 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000783325-26-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000107815-24-000095 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000107815-25-000103 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000783325-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)