MeritValue

Weave Communications, Inc.

WEAVdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Weave Communications, Inc. earns about -44% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 270% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.5 and $3.74 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$115.9M1$142.1M1$170.5M1$204.3M2$239M2
Net income−$51.7M3−$49.7M4−$31M5−$28.3M5−$28.1M5
Operating cash flow−$20.4M6−$12.8M7$10.2M8$14.1M8$17.5M8
Capital expenditure$7.38M9$1.9M10$1.69M11$2.19M11$2.39M11
Free cash flow (derived)−$27.7M6−$14.7M7$8.53M8$12M8$15.2M8
Total debt$20M12$10M12$013——
Cash & equivalents$136M14$62M15$50.8M16$51.6M17$55M17
Diluted shares20.6M65.1M67.7M71.7M76.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$10.8
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.68
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.99
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $10.8 of net worth that earned you −$3.68 and generated $1.99 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-44% avg · 5y
FY21 -46%FY22 -60%FY23 -39%FY24 -42%FY25 -34%

It earned about -44% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+270% shares · 5y

Share count is up 270% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.5 and $3.74 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$3.74
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$12M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$3.5
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$12M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $3.5
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.96
Base5.0%$3.5
Bull10.0%$4.15

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001609151-24-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001609151-26-000016 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001609151-24-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001609151-25-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001609151-26-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001609151-24-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001609151-25-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001609151-26-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001609151-24-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001609151-25-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001609151-26-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001609151-23-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001609151-24-000021 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001609151-23-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001609151-24-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001609151-25-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001609151-26-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)