MeritValue

WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LTD

WDSdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LTD earns about 12% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 97% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $14.82 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.96B1$16.8B2$14B3$13.2B3$13B3
Net income$1.98B4$6.5B5$1.66B6$3.57B6$2.72B6
Operating cash flow$3.79B7$8.81B8$6.15B9$5.85B9$7.19B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$5.43B10$5.14B11$4.87B11$10B11—
Cash & equivalents$3.03B12$6.2B13$1.74B13$3.92B13$5.71B13
Diluted shares962.6M1.90B1.90B1.90B1.90B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$188.91
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$14.3
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $188.91 of net worth that earned you $14.3 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 18%FY23 7%FY24 9%FY25 12%

It earned an average 12% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+97% shares · 5y

Share count is up 97% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 84% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$14.82
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.72B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$24.57
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-047077 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-034217 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010858 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-047077 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-034217 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010858 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-047077 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-034217 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010858 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-047077 (Borrowings)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-034217 (Borrowings)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-034217 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010858 (CashAndCashEquivalents)