Waterdrop Inc.
WDHdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Waterdrop Inc. earns about -0% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 24% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.13 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $503.1M1 | $406.2M2 | $370.5M3 | $379.7M4 | $568.8M5 |
| Net income | −$247M6 | $88.1M7 | $23.1M8 | $48.1M9 | $80.8M10 |
| Operating cash flow | −$172.1M11 | $111M12 | $57.3M13 | $59.9M14 | $34.9M15 |
| Capital expenditure | $5.6M16 | $1.72M17 | $1.91M18 | $29.9M19 | $4.24M20 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$177.7M11 | $109.3M12 | $55.4M13 | $30M14 | $30.6M15 |
| Total debt | — | — | $19.4M21 | $27.2M22 | $6.72M23 |
| Cash & equivalents | $128.3M24 | $228.2M25 | $55.9M26 | $135.1M27 | $69.1M28 |
| Diluted shares | 2.99B | 4.02B | 3.88B | 3.72B | 3.71B |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $1.98 of net worth that earned you $0.22 and generated $0.08 of cash last year, against $0.02 of debt.
It earned about -0% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 24% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 65% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$30.6M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$30.6M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$48.1M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $0.13 |
| Base | 0.0% | $0.13 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $0.16 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-127542 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-102905 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
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