MeritValue

WD 40 CO

WDFCdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

WD 40 CO earns about 19% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $53.2 and $325.97 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$488.1M1$518.8M2$537.3M3$590.6M3$620M3
Net income$70.2M4$67.3M5$66M6$69.6M6$91M6
Operating cash flow$84.7M7$2.6M8$98.4M9$92M9$87.9M9
Capital expenditure$15.1M10$8.3M11$6.87M12$4.21M12$4.53M12
Free cash flow (derived)$69.7M7−$5.7M8$91.5M9$87.8M9$83.4M9
Total debt$231.5M13$292.6M14$241.1M15$189.3M16$174M16
Cash & equivalents$86M17$37.8M18$48.1M19$46.7M20$58.1M20
Diluted shares13.7M13.7M13.6M13.6M13.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$197.65
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$67.07
Free cash flow it threw off
$61.47
Debt you’d be carrying
$128.25

10 shares is a claim on $197.65 of net worth that earned you $67.07 and generated $61.47 of cash last year, against $128.25 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
19% avg · 5y
FY21 21%FY22 16%FY23 17%FY24 19%FY25 24%

It earned about 19% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 25% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $53.2 and $325.97 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$325.97
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth18.1%
  • fcfBase$87.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$187.31
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth18.1%
  • fcfBase$87.8M
Earnings Power Value
$53.2
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$69.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$54.54
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years18.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $187.31
The three cases
Bear0.0%$83.95
Base18.1%$187.31
Bull20.0%$202.52

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 18.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0000105132-23-000059 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0000105132-24-000064 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0000105132-25-000067 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0000105132-23-000059 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0000105132-24-000064 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0000105132-25-000067 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0000105132-23-000059 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0000105132-24-000064 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0000105132-25-000067 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0000105132-23-000059 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0000105132-24-000064 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0000105132-25-000067 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0000105132-22-000038 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0000105132-23-000059 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0000105132-24-000064 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-08-31 · accession 0000105132-25-000067 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0000105132-22-000038 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0000105132-23-000059 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0000105132-24-000064 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-08-31 · accession 0000105132-25-000067 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)