WESTERN DIGITAL CORP
WDCdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'
WESTERN DIGITAL CORP earns about 22% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 21% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $41.27 and $184.2 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $18.8B1 | $6.26B2 | $6.32B3 | $9.52B3 | $12.9B3 |
| Net income | $1.55B4 | −$1.68B5 | −$798M6 | $1.89B6 | $9.42B6 |
| Operating cash flow | $1.88B7 | −$408M8 | −$294M9 | $1.69B9 | $3.93B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $1.12B10 | $821M11 | $487M12 | $412M12 | $418M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $758M7 | −$1.23B8 | −$781M9 | $1.28B9 | $3.51B9 |
| Total debt | $14B13 | $14.1B14 | $14.9B15 | $9.42B16 | $2.1B16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $2.33B17 | $2.02B18 | $1.55B19 | $2.11B20 | $1.58B20 |
| Diluted shares | 316.0M | 318.0M | 326.0M | 359.0M | 383.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $231.44 of net worth that earned you $246.06 and generated $91.67 of cash last year, against $54.93 of debt.
It earned about 22% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 21% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 85% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $41.27 and $184.2 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.8%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth19.4%
- fcfBase$1.28B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.8%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth19.4%
- fcfBase$1.28B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.8%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$1.55B
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $45.44 |
| Base | 19.4% | $102.71 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $105.28 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 19.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-07-01 · accession 0000106040-24-000031 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000106040-25-000038 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-28 · accession 0001628280-26-057139 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-07-01 · accession 0000106040-24-000031 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000106040-25-000038 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-28 · accession 0001628280-26-057139 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-07-01 · accession 0000106040-24-000031 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000106040-25-000038 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-28 · accession 0001628280-26-057139 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-07-01 · accession 0000106040-24-000031 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000106040-25-000038 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-28 · accession 0001628280-26-057139 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-07-01 · accession 0000106040-23-000024 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000106040-24-000031 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-28 · accession 0000106040-25-000038 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-06-27 · accession 0001628280-26-057139 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-07-01 · accession 0000106040-23-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000106040-24-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-28 · accession 0000106040-25-000038 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-06-27 · accession 0001628280-26-057139 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)