MeritValue

Workday, Inc.

WDAYdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Workday, Inc. earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $20.33 and $313.89 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$5.14B1$6.22B2$7.26B3$8.45B3$9.55B3
Net income$29M4−$367M5$1.38B6$526M6$693M6
Operating cash flow$1.65B7$1.66B8$2.15B9$2.46B9$2.94B9
Capital expenditure—$364M10$232M11$269M11$162M11
Free cash flow (derived)—$1.29B8$1.92B9$2.19B9$2.78B9
Total debt$3.68B12$5.95B13$5.96B14$2.98B15$2.99B15
Cash & equivalents$1.53B16$1.89B17$2.01B18$1.54B18$1.5B18
Diluted shares254.0M254.8M265.3M269.2M268.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$291.1
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$25.85
Free cash flow it threw off
$103.57
Debt you’d be carrying
$111.41

10 shares is a claim on $291.1 of net worth that earned you $25.85 and generated $103.57 of cash last year, against $111.41 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY22 0%FY23 -1%FY24 4%FY25 6%FY26 8%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y

Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 19% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $20.33 and $313.89 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$313.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth14.3%
  • fcfBase$2.19B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$207.91
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth14.3%
  • fcfBase$2.19B
Earnings Power Value
$20.33
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$526M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$41.19
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years14.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $207.91
The three cases
Bear0.0%$111.27
Base14.3%$207.91
Bull19.3%$254.35

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 14.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001327811-24-000044 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001327811-25-000056 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001327811-26-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001327811-24-000044 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001327811-25-000056 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001327811-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001327811-24-000044 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001327811-25-000056 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001327811-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001327811-25-000056 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001327811-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001327811-23-000024 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001327811-24-000044 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001327811-25-000056 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001327811-26-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001327811-24-000044 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001327811-25-000056 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001327811-26-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)