MeritValue

Walker & Dunlop, Inc.

WDdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Walker & Dunlop, Inc. earns about 14% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $33.59 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$363.5M1$430M2$258.2M3$265.4M3$320M3
Net income$265.8M4$213.8M5$107.4M6$108.2M6$56.2M6
Operating cash flow$870.5M7$1.58B8−$518,0009$129.4M9−$664.3M9
Capital expenditure$9.21M10$22M11$16.2M12$13M12$15.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$861.2M7$1.56B8−$16.7M9$116.4M9−$680.1M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$305.6M13$225.9M14$328.7M14$279.3M14$299.3M14
Diluted shares31.5M32.7M32.9M33.2M33.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$519.95
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$16.86
Free cash flow it threw off
−$203.81
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $519.95 of net worth that earned you $16.86 and generated −$203.81 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 23%FY22 17%FY23 10%FY24 11%FY25 7%

It earned an average 14% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y

Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$33.59
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$108.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$43.8
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001538 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001503 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020249 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001538 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001503 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020249 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001538 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001503 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020249 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001538 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001503 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020249 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001503 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020249 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)