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Walker & Dunlop, Inc.

WDdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Walker & Dunlop, Inc. earns about 9% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $32.42 a share. Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$363.5M1$430M2$258.2M3$265.4M3$320M3
Net income$265.8M4$213.8M5$107.4M6$108.2M6$56.2M6
Operating cash flow$870.5M7$1.58B8−$518,0009$129.4M9−$664.3M9
Capital expenditure$9.21M10$22M11$16.2M12$13M12$15.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$861.2M7,10$1.56B8,11−$16.7M9,12$116.4M9,12−$680.1M9,12
Total debt$740.2M13$704.1M14$773.4M15$768M16$829.2M16
Cash & equivalents$305.6M17$225.9M18$328.7M18$279.3M18$299.3M18
Diluted shares31.5M32.7M32.9M33.2M33.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom). A derived or summed figure cites every filing line it was built from.

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$519.95
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$16.86
Free cash flow it threw off
−$203.81
Debt you’d be carrying
$248.5

10 shares is a claim on $519.95 of net worth that earned you $16.86 and generated −$203.81 of cash last year, against $248.5 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 15%FY22 11%FY23 6%FY24 7%FY25 5%

It earned an average 9% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y

Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 12% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.6.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$32.42
assumptions (8)
  • Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
  • Equity risk premium5.00%
  • Beta (β)1.00
  • Equity share of capital85.0%
  • Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
  • Tax rate21.0%
  • Normalized earnings$108.2M
  • Growth assumed0.0%
Graham Number
$43.79
assumptions (1)
  • Graham multiplier (P/E × P/B)22.5×

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

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Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K filed 2024-02-22 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001538 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K filed 2025-02-25 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001503 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020249 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K filed 2024-02-22 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001538 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K filed 2025-02-25 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001503 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020249 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K filed 2024-02-22 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001538 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K filed 2025-02-25 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001503 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020249 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K filed 2024-02-22 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001538 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K filed 2025-02-25 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001503 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020249 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K filed 2023-02-23 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001872 (NotesPayable)
  14. 10-K filed 2024-02-22 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001538 (NotesPayable)
  15. 10-K filed 2025-02-25 · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001503 (NotesPayable)
  16. 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · periods ending 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020249 (NotesPayable)
  17. 10-K filed 2025-02-25 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001503 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K filed 2026-02-26 · periods ending 2022-12-31, 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-020249 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)