MeritValue

Waste Connections, Inc.

WCNdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Waste Connections, Inc. earns about 9% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count. The estimate methods put fair value between $30.64 and $109.7 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.15B1$7.21B2$8.02B3$8.92B3$9.47B3
Net income$618M4$835.7M5$762.8M6$617.6M6$1.08B6
Operating cash flow$1.7B7$2.02B8$2.13B9$2.23B9$2.41B9
Capital expenditure$744.3M10$912.7M11$934M12$1.06B12$1.18B12
Free cash flow (derived)$953.9M7$1.11B8$1.19B9$1.17B9$1.23B9
Total debt$5.05B13$6.9B13———
Cash & equivalents$147.4M14$78.6M15$78.4M16$62.4M17$46M17
Diluted shares261.7M258.0M258.1M258.7M258.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$319.62
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$41.73
Free cash flow it threw off
$47.87
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $319.62 of net worth that earned you $41.73 and generated $47.87 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 7%FY23 13%FY24 8%FY25 13%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 37% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $30.64 and $109.7 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$109.7
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth7.7%
  • fcfBase$1.19B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$92.28
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth7.7%
  • fcfBase$1.19B
Earnings Power Value
$30.64
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$762.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$54.76
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years7.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $92.28
The three cases
Bear0.0%$66.24
Base7.7%$92.28
Bull12.7%$113.32

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 7.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001109 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000893 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-013700 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001109 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000893 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-013700 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001109 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000893 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-013700 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001109 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000893 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-013700 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001404 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001404 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001109 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000893 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-013700 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)