MeritValue

WEBSTER FINANCIAL CORP

WBSdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

WEBSTER FINANCIAL CORP earns about 20% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 83% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $48.22 and $251.55 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$212.4M1$268.7M2$233.4M3$245.7M3$238M3
Net income$408.9M4$644.3M5$867.8M6$768.7M6$1B6
Operating cash flow$688.6M7$1.34B8$978.6M9$1.4B9$1.06B9
Capital expenditure$16.6M10$28.8M11$40.3M12$35.8M12$49.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$672M7$1.31B8$938.3M9$1.37B9$1.01B9
Total debt$562.9M13$1.07B14$1.05B15$909.2M16$739.5M16
Cash & equivalents$461.6M17$839.9M18$1.72B18$2.07B18$2.45B18
Diluted shares90.2M167.5M171.9M170.2M165.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$574.57
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$60.7
Free cash flow it threw off
$61.05
Debt you’d be carrying
$44.76

10 shares is a claim on $574.57 of net worth that earned you $60.7 and generated $61.05 of cash last year, against $44.76 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
20% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 10%FY23 24%FY24 25%FY25 28%

It earned about 20% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+83% shares · 5y

Share count is up 83% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 31% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $48.22 and $251.55 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$251.55
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth14.5%
  • fcfBase$1.01B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$170.69
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth14.5%
  • fcfBase$1.01B
Earnings Power Value
$48.22
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$768.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$87.34
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years14.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $170.69
The three cases
Bear0.0%$97.58
Base14.5%$170.69
Bull19.5%$205.53

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 14.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000801337-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000801337-25-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000801337-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000801337-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000801337-25-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000801337-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000801337-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000801337-25-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000801337-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000801337-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000801337-25-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000801337-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000801337-23-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000801337-24-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000801337-25-000004 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000801337-26-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000801337-25-000004 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000801337-26-000008 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)