WEIBO Corp
WBdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on fileWEIBO Corp earns about 28% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 116561% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $13.22 and $31.53 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.26B1 | $1.84B2 | $1.76B3 | $1.75B3 | $1.76B3 |
| Net income | $428.3M4 | $85.6M5 | $342.6M6 | $300.8M6 | $449M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $814M7 | $564.1M8 | $672.8M9 | $639.9M9 | $519.5M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $35.1M10 | $43.1M11 | $36.8M12 | $61.5M12 | $42.4M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $778.9M7 | $521M8 | $636M9 | $578.4M9 | $477.1M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | $2.19B13 | $2.1B14 |
| Cash & equivalents | $2.42B15 | $2.69B16 | $2.58B17 | $1.89B18 | $2.3B18 |
| Diluted shares | 230,206 | 236,407 | 240.0M | 265.2M | 268.6M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $145.99 of net worth that earned you $16.72 and generated $17.77 of cash last year, against $78.05 of debt.
It earned about 28% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 116561% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $13.22 and $31.53 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$578.4M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$578.4M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$342.6M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $31.53 |
| Base | 0.0% | $31.53 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $38.98 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-051442 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000730 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-047217 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-051442 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000730 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-047217 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-051442 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000730 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-047217 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-051442 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000730 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-047217 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000730 (LongTermDebt)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-047217 (LongTermDebt)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-050582 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-051442 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000730 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-047217 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)