Waystar Holding Corp.
WAYdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Waystar Holding Corp. earns about -1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 52% over 4 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.49 and $30.34 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $704.9M1 | $791M2 | $943.5M2 | $1.1B2 |
| Net income | −$51.5M3 | −$51.3M4 | −$19.1M4 | $112.1M4 |
| Operating cash flow | $102.6M5 | $51.5M6 | $169.8M6 | $309.7M6 |
| Capital expenditure | $17.4M7 | $21.5M8 | $27.3M8 | $26.5M8 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $85.2M5 | $29.9M6 | $142.5M6 | $283.2M6 |
| Total debt | — | $2.22B9 | $2.48B10 | $2.95B10 |
| Cash & equivalents | $64.6M11 | $35.6M12 | $182.1M12 | $61.4M12 |
| Diluted shares | 121.7M | 121.7M | 149.9M | 184.8M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $209.91 of net worth that earned you $6.07 and generated $15.33 of cash last year, against $159.87 of debt.
It earned about -1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 52% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 33% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.49 and $30.34 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$142.5M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$142.5M
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | −$4.64 |
| Base | 20.0% | $9.49 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $9.49 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000148 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001990354-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000148 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001990354-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000148 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001990354-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000148 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001990354-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000148 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001990354-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000148 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001990354-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)