MeritValue

WATERS CORP /DE/

WATdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

WATERS CORP /DE/ earns about 19% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $111.54 and $144.41 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.79B1$2.97B2$2.96B3$2.96B3$3.17B3
Net income$692.8M4$707.8M5$642.2M6$637.8M6$642.6M6
Operating cash flow$747.3M7$611.7M8$602.8M9$762.1M9$652.6M9
Capital expenditure——$160.6M10$142.5M10$112.7M10
Free cash flow (derived)——$442.2M9$619.6M9$539.8M9
Total debt$3.03B11$3.1B12$4.67B13$3.26B14$2.36B14
Cash & equivalents$501.2M15$480.5M16$395.1M17$325.4M18$587.8M18
Diluted shares62.0M60.3M59.3M59.6M59.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$428.98
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$107.63
Free cash flow it threw off
$90.41
Debt you’d be carrying
$394.84

10 shares is a claim on $428.98 of net worth that earned you $107.63 and generated $90.41 of cash last year, against $394.84 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
19% avg · 5y
FY21 25%FY22 24%FY23 13%FY24 15%FY25 16%

It earned about 19% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 22% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $111.54 and $144.41 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$144.41
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$539.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$130.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$539.8M
Earnings Power Value
$111.54
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$642.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$101.91
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $130.81
The three cases
Bear0.0%$99.54
Base5.0%$130.81
Bull10.0%$168.22

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-047491 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-034579 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-062604 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-047491 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-034579 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-062604 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-047491 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-034579 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-062604 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-062604 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-050827 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-047491 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-034579 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-062604 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-050827 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-047491 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-034579 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-062604 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)