MeritValue

Waldencast plc

WALDdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Waldencast plc earns about -13% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 1326% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$94.4M1$142.5M2$218.1M3$273.9M3$272.1M3
Net income−$2.37M4−$19.6M5−$90M6−$42.4M6−$229.7M6
Operating cash flow−$7.43M7$3.53M8−$29.8M9−$8.82M9−$12.8M9
Capital expenditure$1.05M10$424,00011$1.59M12$2.71M12$3.43M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$8.49M7$3.11M8−$31.4M9−$11.5M9−$16.2M9
Total debt—$237.7M13$159.8M14$166.6M15$136.5M15
Cash & equivalents$8.57M16$12.8M17$21.1M18$14.8M18$30.4M18
Diluted shares8.0M8.0M91.2M109.3M114.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$40.49
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$20.14
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.42
Debt you’d be carrying
$11.97

10 shares is a claim on $40.49 of net worth that earned you −$20.14 and generated −$1.42 of cash last year, against $11.97 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-13% avg · 5y
FY20 —FY21 0%FY23 -10%FY24 -5%FY25 -36%

It earned an average -13% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1326% shares · 5y

Share count is up 1326% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 43% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001840199-24-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001840199-24-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001840199-26-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001840199-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001840199-24-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001840199-26-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001840199-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001840199-24-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001840199-26-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001840199-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001840199-24-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001840199-26-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001840199-24-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001840199-25-000025 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001840199-26-000019 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001840199-24-000027 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001840199-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001840199-26-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)