MeritValue

WESTERN ALLIANCE BANCORPORATION

WALdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

WESTERN ALLIANCE BANCORPORATION earns about 24% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 6% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $85.1 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$37.6M1$44.1M2$98.6M3$68M3$135.8M3
Net income$899.2M4$1.06B5$722.4M6$787.7M6$969M6
Operating cash flow−$2.65B7$2.25B8−$328.6M9−$2.74B9−$2.68B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$1.5B10$6.3B11$7.23B12$5.57B13$5.24B13
Cash & equivalents$516.4M14$1.04B14$1.58B15$4.1B15$3.6B15
Diluted shares103.3M107.6M108.5M109.3M109.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$698.9
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$88.49
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$478.54

10 shares is a claim on $698.9 of net worth that earned you $88.49 last year, against $478.54 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
24% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 14%FY23 17%FY24 35%FY25 36%

It earned an average 24% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+6% shares · 5y

Share count is up 6% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 249% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$85.1
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$899.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$117.17
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001212545-24-000092 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001212545-25-000090 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010336 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001212545-24-000092 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001212545-25-000090 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010336 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001212545-24-000092 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001212545-25-000090 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010336 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001212545-23-000093 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001212545-24-000092 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001212545-25-000090 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010336 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001212545-23-000093 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-010336 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)