MeritValue

WAFD INC

WAFDdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

WAFD INC earns about 183% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 11% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $29.19 and $45.26 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$24.7M1$25.9M2$26.1M3$27.5M3$29.7M3
Net income$183.6M4$236.3M5$257.4M6$200M6$226.1M6
Operating cash flow$314.5M7$268.5M8$214M9$439.2M9$237M9
Capital expenditure$29.5M10$11.8M11$15.1M12$24.7M12$28.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$285M7$256.7M8$198.9M9$414.6M9$208.2M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$2.09B13$684M14$980.6M15$2.38B16$657.3M16
Diluted shares72.6M65.4M65.3M74.3M80.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$378.74
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$28.17
Free cash flow it threw off
$25.95
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $378.74 of net worth that earned you $28.17 and generated $25.95 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
183% avg · 5y
FY21 714%FY22 18%FY23 37%FY24 116%FY25 31%

It earned about 183% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+11% shares · 5y

Share count is up 11% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $29.19 and $45.26 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$42.47
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$208.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$45.26
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$208.2M
Earnings Power Value
$29.19
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$226.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$47.34
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $45.26
The three cases
Bear0.0%$45.26
Base0.0%$45.26
Bull5.0%$54.24

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000936528-23-000207 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000936528-24-000164 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000936528-25-000117 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000936528-23-000207 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000936528-24-000164 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000936528-25-000117 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000936528-23-000207 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000936528-24-000164 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000936528-25-000117 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000936528-23-000207 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000936528-24-000164 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000936528-25-000117 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000936528-22-000143 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000936528-23-000207 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000936528-24-000164 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000936528-25-000117 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)