MeritValue

WESTINGHOUSE AIR BRAKE TECHNOLOGIES CORP

WABdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

WESTINGHOUSE AIR BRAKE TECHNOLOGIES CORP earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $49.36 and $425.81 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$7.82B1$8.36B2$9.68B3$10.4B3$11.2B3
Net income$558M4$633M5$815M6$1.06B6$1.17B6
Operating cash flow$1.07B7$1.04B8$1.2B9$1.83B9$1.76B9
Capital expenditure$130M10$149M11$186M12$207M12$260M12
Free cash flow (derived)$943M7$889M8$1.02B9$1.63B9$1.5B9
Total debt$8.12B13$8B14$8.14B15$7.96B16$11.1B16
Cash & equivalents$473M17$541M18$620M18$715M18$789M18
Diluted shares188.1M182.8M179.5M174.8M171.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$651.2
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$68.38
Free cash flow it threw off
$87.61
Debt you’d be carrying
$647.69

10 shares is a claim on $651.2 of net worth that earned you $68.38 and generated $87.61 of cash last year, against $647.69 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 3%FY23 4%FY24 6%FY25 6%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 37% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $49.36 and $425.81 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$425.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth19.0%
  • fcfBase$1.5B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$214.9
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth19.0%
  • fcfBase$1.5B
Earnings Power Value
$49.36
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$815M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$100.04
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years19.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $214.9
The three cases
Bear0.0%$65.02
Base19.0%$214.9
Bull20.0%$225.48

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 19.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004774 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005100 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008067 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004774 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005100 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008067 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004774 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005100 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008067 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004774 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005100 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008067 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-003675 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004774 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-005100 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008067 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-22-002997 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-008067 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)