MeritValue

Wayfair Inc.

Wdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Wayfair Inc. earns about -20% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 23% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$13.7B1$12.2B2$12B3$11.9B3$12.5B3
Net income−$131M4−$1.33B5−$738M6−$492M6−$313M6
Operating cash flow$410M7−$674M8$349M9$317M9$534M9
Capital expenditure$101M10$186M11$148M12$73M12$70M12
Free cash flow (derived)$309M7−$860M8$201M9$244M9$464M9
Total debt$3.05B13$6.27B14$6.42B15$6.24B16$6.54B16
Cash & equivalents$1.71B17$1.05B18$1.32B19$1.32B19$1.48B19
Diluted shares104.0M106.0M114.0M123.0M128.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$217.34
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$24.45
Free cash flow it threw off
$36.25
Debt you’d be carrying
$511.25

10 shares is a claim on −$217.34 of net worth that earned you −$24.45 and generated $36.25 of cash last year, against $511.25 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-20% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -39%FY23 -22%FY24 -15%FY25 -5%

It earned an average -20% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+23% shares · 5y

Share count is up 23% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 114% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$244M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$244M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001616707-24-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001616707-25-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001616707-26-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001616707-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001616707-25-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001616707-26-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001616707-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001616707-25-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001616707-26-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001616707-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001616707-25-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001616707-26-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001616707-23-000037 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001616707-24-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001616707-25-000022 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001616707-26-000027 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001616707-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001616707-25-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001616707-26-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)