MeritValue

NCR Voyix Corp

VYXdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

NCR Voyix Corp earns about -1% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 8% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $4.55 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.69B1$3.17B2$3.17B3$2.82B3$2.69B3
Net income$97M4$60M5−$428M6$958M6$62M6
Operating cash flow$1.01B7$427M8$694M9−$132M9−$210M9
Capital expenditure$106M10$92M11$130M11$30M11$165M12
Free cash flow (derived)$903M7$335M8$564M9−$162M9−$375M9
Total debt$11.2B13$11.4B14$5.16B15$2.2B16$2.21B16
Cash & equivalents$221M17$218M18$256M19$722M19$231M19
Diluted shares131.2M136.7M140.6M144.7M141.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$67.19
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.39
Free cash flow it threw off
−$26.58
Debt you’d be carrying
$156.27

10 shares is a claim on $67.19 of net worth that earned you $4.39 and generated −$26.58 of cash last year, against $156.27 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-1% avg · 5y
FY21 -0%FY22 -0%FY23 -4%FY24 -2%FY25 1%

It earned an average -1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+8% shares · 5y

Share count is up 8% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 80% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$4.55
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$62M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$6.73
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000070866-24-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000070866-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000070866-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000070866-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000070866-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000070866-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000070866-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000070866-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000070866-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000070866-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000070866-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000070866-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000070866-23-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000070866-24-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000070866-25-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000070866-26-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000070866-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000070866-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000070866-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)