MeritValue

Voyager Therapeutics, Inc.

VYGRdata completeness 88%12 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Voyager Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -5% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 56% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$37.4M1$40.9M2$250M3$80M3$40.4M3
Net income−$71.2M4−$46.4M5$132.3M6−$65M6−$119.7M6
Operating cash flow−$53.5M7−$12.5M8$77.9M9−$15.3M9−$132.5M9
Capital expenditure$1.61M10$2.49M11$3.26M12$3.52M12$2.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$55.1M7−$15M8$74.7M9−$18.8M9−$135.1M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$117.4M13$99M13$68.8M14$71.4M15$65.3M15
Diluted shares37.7M38.4M44.6M57.7M58.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$33.41
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$20.4
Free cash flow it threw off
−$23.01
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $33.41 of net worth that earned you −$20.4 and generated −$23.01 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-5% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 79%FY24 -22%FY25 -72%

It earned an average -5% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+56% shares · 5y

Share count is up 56% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001988 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002703 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025197 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001988 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002703 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025197 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001988 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002703 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025197 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001988 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002703 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025197 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001988 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002703 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-025197 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)