MeritValue

Vaxart, Inc.

VXRTdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Vaxart, Inc. earns about -129% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 90% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$892,0001$107,0002$7.38M2$28.7M3$237.3M3
Net income−$70.5M4−$107.8M5−$82.5M6−$66.9M7$16.3M7
Operating cash flow−$59.8M8−$94.8M9−$70.5M10−$44.8M11$7.71M11
Capital expenditure$5.16M12$9.6M13$1.87M14$554,00015$145,00015
Free cash flow (derived)−$65M8−$104.4M9−$72.3M10−$45.3M11$7.57M11
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$143.7M16$44M17$34.8M17$25.2M18$53.8M18
Diluted shares121.5M127.7M144.8M202.1M230.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$3.81
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.71
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.33
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $3.81 of net worth that earned you $0.71 and generated $0.33 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-129% avg · 5y
FY21 -127%FY22 -128%FY23 -282%FY24 -156%FY25 48%

It earned an average -129% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+90% shares · 5y

Share count is up 90% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$0.77
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006688 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007865 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008023 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006688 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007865 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008572 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006688 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007865 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008572 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006688 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007865 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008572 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006688 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007865 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008023 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)