MeritValue

V2X, Inc.

VVXdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

V2X, Inc. earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 169% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.3 and $295.85 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.78B1$2.89B2$3.96B3$4.32B3$4.48B3
Net income$45.7M4−$14.3M5−$22.6M6$34.7M6$77.9M6
Operating cash flow$61.3M7$93.5M8$188M9$254.2M9$182M9
Capital expenditure$9.78M10$12.4M11$25M12$11.8M12$11.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$51.6M7$81.1M8$162.9M9$242.5M9$170.1M9
Total debt$210M13$1.27B14$1.12B15$1.11B16$1.1B16
Cash & equivalents$38.5M17$116.1M17$72.7M18$268.3M18$369M18
Diluted shares11.8M21.0M31.1M32.0M31.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$340.87
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$24.48
Free cash flow it threw off
$53.45
Debt you’d be carrying
$345.12

10 shares is a claim on $340.87 of net worth that earned you $24.48 and generated $53.45 of cash last year, against $345.12 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 -0%FY23 -1%FY24 2%FY25 4%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+169% shares · 5y

Share count is up 169% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 423% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.3 and $295.85 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$295.85
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$170.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$151.34
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$170.1M
Earnings Power Value
$11.3
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$34.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$43.35
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $151.34
The three cases
Bear0.0%$53.45
Base20.0%$151.34
Bull20.0%$151.34

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001601548-24-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001601548-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001601548-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001601548-24-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001601548-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001601548-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001601548-24-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001601548-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001601548-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001601548-24-000004 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001601548-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001601548-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001601548-23-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001601548-24-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001601548-25-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001601548-26-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001601548-23-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001601548-26-000015 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)